The F1 Times Italian GP Gamble
|6 September 2012 by Daniel Chalmers||Tweet
The F1 Times gambling contest between Ryan Wood (Editor) and Daniel Chalmers (Feature Editor) heads to the 13th round in Monza for the Italian GP
Both men have a budget of £5 to spend on a maximum of 3 different bets relating to the upcoming event. The deadline for these bets to be placed is before the start of the first Friday practise session.
At the end of the season the winner will be the person who has made the most profit, or made the lowest loss.
Here are the results from last time.
Bet 1 – Romain Grosjean to qualify on pole - £2.00 at 15/2
Bet 2 – Kimi Raikkonen to win the race - £2.00 at 5/1
Bet 3 - Daniel Ricciardo to finish in the points - £1.00 at 5/1 – Won £6.00
Bet 1 – Michael Schumacher to take pole position - £1.00 each way at 25/1
Bet 2 – Fernando Alonso to win the Belgium GP - £2.00 at 6/1
Bet 3 - Kimi Raikkonen to win the Belgium GP - £1.00 at 9/2
After a high profit weekend in Hungary, Spa turned out to be a bit of a damp squib for Ryan and Daniel. Lotus underwhelmed after all their promise going into the weekend, so no money was won on either Romain Grosjean or Kimi Raikkonen.
The first corner carnage ruined Daniel’s chances of making any profit on Alonso. Although the incident did help Ryan, as it gave a chance for Ricciardo to score points, which he went on to achieve. So at least some money was won, even though it wasn’t much.
After twelve races £60 has been spent by both men. Ryan now has £37.75 worth of profit, whilst Daniel has £26.40 worth of losses. Therefore there is a difference of £64.15 between the two gamblers.
This weekend the F1 circus heads to Monza which is very much one of a kind on the F1 calendar. With the circuit being dominated by long straights it’s the only ultra low downforce track of the year. All the teams bring special low downforce configurations to adapt to the unique challenges of this track.
Good straight-line speed is crucial if you want to get a good result in Monza. Not only that but it’s also important to have a car that is strong on the brakes, and strong over the kerbs.
Monza is one of the easiest tracks on tyres so conserving the tyres shouldn’t be as hot a topic at this particular event.
Unlike the cool temperatures that were experienced in Spa, Monza promises a very warm weekend with hot track temperatures as a result.
Let’s see where the money is going this weekend.
Round 13 Italy
Bet 1 - Lewis Hamilton to win the Italian Grand Prix at 100/30 - £3.00
Bet 2 - Jenson Button to win the Italian Grand Prix at 5/1 - £2.00
I've split my bets this weekend. If I win one, I can't win the other, which is quite a risky strategy though it does double my chances of being correct.
McLaren's form, well Jenson Button's form to be fair, was quite dominant in Belgium. The circuit shares many similarities to Monza which is basically long straights connected by chicanes. Sector one and three at Spa are long straights with heavy braking zones, hence why I believe McLaren will be strong.
I have however put 3/5 of my betting budget on Hamilton rather than Button. Some would say a strange strategy given it was Button who won in Belgium and made the right set up calls. Why am I putting more faith in Hamilton? Well I can't see him making the same mistake twice and this is the first time he's been out qualified by Button in 2012. I fully expect Hamilton to be back on form in Monza with a strong car beneath him… failing that, my monies on Button!
Bet 1 – Jerome D'Ambrosio to finish in the top 6 at 4/1 - £2.00
D’ambrosio may not have raced this year but I think he is a talented driver. I thought he did a good job for Virgin last year. Although he was out-qualified by Timo Glock most of the time he was strong in the races and very reliable too. I didn’t think he deserved to lose his seat.
It’s not that long since he last raced, and he also drove for Lotus at the Mugello test at the start of May. So he does have a bit of experience of the car already. Also it’s not as if there have been wholesale changes to the cars since 2011
The E20 is now one of the best cars on the grid, so if Jerome can keep out of trouble he has a realistic chance of a solid top six finish. Warm conditions are expected which will suit Lotus too.
The dry conditions will also give him four hours worth of good practise time to prepare fully for qualifying and the race.
Bet 2 – A British 1-2 at 7/1 - £2.00
So basically I need Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button to finish 1-2 in any order. Of course the bet does include Paul Di Resta too, but I doubt he will be fighting for the top two (but if he does I certainly won’t complain).
McLaren are F1’s in form team and they are now looking quite a force. They have had the best car for three races running now. In Spa had Lewis gone for the low downforce setup as Jenson did I am sure it would have been an utterly dominant team 1-2.
Jenson showed that in the low downforce configuration that the MP4-27 is extremely competitive. Therefore their Spa performance ought to translate very well to Monza. With dry practise sessions predicted I am sure both drivers will have a strong setup and an equal chance of winning, unlike last weekend.
If McLaren have a smooth weekend on both sides of the garage I believe there is a realistic chance of a team 1-2. They could dominate this weekend.
Bet 3 – Michael Schumacher to qualify on pole at 33/1 – 50p each way
I promised myself I wouldn’t do this bet again but here we are. If Mercedes are to get another pole this year it’s going to be here. I couldn’t take the risk of avoiding this bet, and then Michael taking pole.
In Spa, Mercedes were competitive in sectors 1 and 3. It was the middle sector with all the fast and long corners where they were losing bucket loads of time. I am sure the wet practise sessions played a part in them being uncompetitive too.
In Monza there are no fast corners apart from the Parabolica. It’s all about horsepower so I think Mercedes with their strong engine and double (or even triple) DRS should be much more competitive than in Spa.
Also as we saw back in Monaco the W03 has pretty good traction. That will serve them well in the chicanes. Remember Schumacher was very strong at this event last year.